Fahrenheit 451,
Fiction to Fact?
The Future of the Book

As librarian one of the questions I am continually asked is, "are you still buying books?" This is always asked with a nervous laugh, looking to me for reasurance. I have a hard time imagining a world without books, more importantly a library without books. But my purpose here todat is to take a glance at the possible future. Will the book as we know it die from lack of interest? Will electronic technology of bits and bytes replace the musty smell and tactile natu re of paper? Where will my desk be placed in a library without walls. To make this investigation more relevant to the topic at hand, I looked ony to electronic texts in my education on this venture. Neither did I use a conventional library. Pretty sca ry stuff for a librarian. I leave it to you to judge my success.

More and more we appear to be in in what has been described as the:

Late age of print

Hypertext
Hyperstacks and Toolbook authoring software create a new type of studies where the reader interacts with text to create there own personal text. Last year at this Humanities Conference we saw a demonstration of the Perseus Project where students stud y ancient Greece and can create their own text in the process.

Michael Joyce, Jerome Bruner, Erin Moure and others
take the Hyperstack a step further developing hyperfiction where the reader interacts as an equal partner with the writer in the creation of an ever changing text.

A New Gutenberg Revolution

Where does this Leave us?

  • Monks could not resist the power, speed and wealth production of the press just as we may not be able to resist the march of the new technology.

  • Librarians are well aware of what will be the first to go. We are daily being forced out of the business of storing periodical literature. We are canceling subscriptions to paper journals at an unprecedented rate and embracing access to electronic p eriodical texts. The Internet is ultimately more logical for this type of material.

  • Books still have appeal for the here and now. While all this is happening books are a growth industry.
    - 50,000 titles/yr in the U.S. -- 137 a day
    - Books are a larger mass medium than TV and motion picture industries combined.
    - Book Industry Study Group estimates spending on books to reach $30.8 billion by 1999, up from $18 billion in 1989. Probably most of this will be on Internet for Dummies books

  • Growth of the Web is phenomenal
    -Doubles in size every 50 days
    -One homepage created every 4 seconds.
    - How will the electronic book develop?

    Most still recognize the essential linear nature of the reading experience. Joe Jacobson at MIT's Media Lab is developing electronic paper. An electronic book that can be a real page turner.

    What will happen as the MTV/Nintendo generation matures?

    Are today's youth more comfortable with mixed media and a more global nonlinear approach?


  • Wrap up

    Recently another historian told me she was surely glad that she was not a historian trying to research this period in history. The documentation of personal diaries and journals simply isn't part of our culture. Think how the Civil War came alive to millions of Television viewers because it was the first war where an educated/literate populace documented the event in such moving letters and journals. She feared that this type of documentation is lost in this age. However , that may be true for the middle of this century when the telephone became ubiquitous. Letter writing languished and it still has in its paper format. But....

    The digital means of communication we see today is all recordable. E-mail and personal web sites with their deeply personal nature will be gold mines for future researchers.

    The Internet Archive - Brewster Kahle
    - 30 million web pages on 225,000 sites
    - 1-10 terrabytes to be archived .... sounds like a lot but..
    - Still less than half of the 20 terrabytes in ASCII text represented by the 20 million books in the Library of Congress.

    I leave you with the image from the Truffaut's version of Fahrenheit 451 where the fireman, Montag, meets up with the fugitives who walk along the peaceful river reciting their memorized books waiting for the time when the world is safe for books again. For them the book had died at the hands of malevolent forces but was reborn in another form. Perhaps the book may die in the future at the hands of dispassionate technology but will be reborn in a form that will still serve the dissemination of serious t hought, unbridled laughter, and joyful wonder.